Saturday, May 28, 2005

New Marburg cases jump

[Click to enlarge]The latest report from the WHO on the Marburg outbreak in Angola shows a new large jump in the number of cases. Currently the toll is at 399 cases, 335 of them fatal. The minimal fatality rate has dropped to just below 85%, but an explanation for this can be that many of the new cases are «fresh», and that a jump in the number of fatalities will come later.

As can be clearly seen from the graph, the rate is higher now than it has been the last month. For the moment it is at 3.5 new cases per day, and 2.6 new fatalities per day.

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Saturday, May 21, 2005

Marburg: Continued linear growth?

[Click to enlarge] According to the numbers released by the WHO on 18 May, the number of Marburg cases continues to grow linearily. The current rate is at around 3 new cases per day, and has been around that number since the beginning of April. On the one hand this means that the outbreak is not completely out of control since the numbers aren't growing exponentially, but on the other hand, the numbers continue to grow at a steady rate, meaning the outbreak isn't completely under control either. The minimal fatality rate is still above 90%.

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Sunday, May 08, 2005

WHO reports lower Marburg case numbers

[Click to enlarge] The WHO published a new report on 6 May confirming the earlier reported jump in the number of new cases, but the new number is lower than the numbers quoted in the press. On 3 May, the WHO had counted 308 Marburg cases, compared to the number of 313 reported by CIDRAP. The graph on the right is corrected accordingly.

This means that new Marburg cases have been discovered at a rate of 3.1 cases per day since 12 April. The minimal fatality rate is 90%, but the WHO hasn't reported any recoveries yet.

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Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Marburg cases jump

[Click to enlarge] The WHO hasn't published any new reports since 29 April, but there are new numbers circulating on the internet. One of the reports if for 30 April, the other one for 2 May. If these numbers are correct, the number of Marburg cases has jumped this last week by a total of almost 40 cases, and there have been 25 new deaths. There is also a report about one recovery, which would be the first one so far for this outbreak.

The graph on the right contains the two new data points. The graph also contains the increase in new cases and fatalities taken over the last five data points. It is clear that the rate for the number of new cases per day has increased during the last week, but it is important to notice that the rate is still much lower than it was in the beginning of April.

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Monday, May 02, 2005

Marburg Outbreak Slowing Down

[Click to enlarge] According to a new bulletin published by the WHO, the outbreak seems to be slowing down. Taken over de last five reports, there have been less than 3 new cases per day, which is the lowest rate since April. The slow-down is clearly visible on the graph to the right. The minimal fatality rate, however, is still well above 90% (currently 93%).

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